Since their November 8th Midterm election Senate race, the polling data between (R) Herschel Walker and (D) Raphael Warnock have maintained a razor-thin margin. Currently, Real Clear Politics has Walker up an average of 1.4 points. However, heading into their December 6th run-off election, Real Clear Politics is still calling this race a toss up.
|FOX 5/InsiderAdvantage*||11/6 – 11/6||550 LV||4.2||49||47||Walker +2|
|WANF-TV/Landmark*||11/4 – 11/7||1214 LV||2.8||47||46||Walker +1|
|Trafalgar Group (R)*||11/4 – 11/6||1103 LV||2.9||50||47||Walker +3|
|Data for Progress (D)**||11/2 – 11/6||1474 LV||3.0||49||48||Walker +1|
|East Carolina U.*||11/2 – 11/5||1077 LV||3.5||49||49||Tie|
One area of hope for Walker is the fact that the December 6th run-off election was sparked due to over 80,000 votes for the Libertarian party candidate, Chase Oliver, who received over 2% of the total vote on November 8th. Oliver will not be on the ticket for the run-off election, and Libertarians have a tendency to fall in line closer to Republicans than they do Democrats.
If the Walker campaign can manage to have a good turnout on December 6th, as well as convince a portion of Libertarians to vote Republican for this Senate race, then Walker can escape the run-off election with a win – securing a 50-50 U.S. Senate.