For the first time in a century, the House is poised to vote on the removal of a sitting Speaker. Kevin McCarthy’s fate now lies in the hands of Democrats and a few rebel Republicans. The Speaker didn’t seem confident in his chances as he entered the House chamber for the vote and gave remarks to reporters.

Watch The Vote LIVE:

What’s Happening: The House is buzzing with a significant event for Tuesday – a vote on the potential removal of Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). This extraordinary vote, prompted by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), is slated for an afternoon showdown. Gaetz stayed true to his word, pushing for a motion to vacate the Speaker’s position.

The fragile GOP majority means that McCarthy’s continuance could largely depend on Democratic choices. The Democratic House leadership, under House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), has signaled their inclination to vote McCarthy out. Jeffries, in a communique to fellow lawmakers, pointed to several reasons – including January’s chaotic Speakership election, the GOP’s withdrawal from a spending agreement, and McCarthy’s inquiry into President Biden.

Historical Context: This isn’t an everyday event. The House is possibly sailing into unexplored waters, as no Speaker in history has been removed via a motion to vacate. This is only the third time ever that there has been an effort to unseat an incumbent Speaker.

The Stakes: If every member attends and votes, and all Democrats oppose him, McCarthy can only bear the weight of four Republicans defecting. However, the tide seems tricky for him as six from his own party have pledged to support his ouster:

> Voting Yes: Matt Gaetz, Victoria Spartz, Eli Crane, Nancy Mace, Bob Good, and Matt Rosendale.

The scales could be further tipped by these Republicans, who, while undecided, seem open to the motion:

> Potential Supporters: Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar, Tim Burchett, Anna Paulina Luna, Wesley Hunt, Ken Buck, Andy Ogles, Michael Cloud, Lauren Boebert (She hinted support with a “thumbs up” gesture to Gaetz), and Andrew Clyde.

Given these numbers, McCarthy might find himself dependent on Democratic support to retain his seat, barring any significant absences during the decisive vote.

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