In the Republican primary race is on the verge of experiencing a major shake-up. Tim Scott, Chris Christie, and Doug Burgum are barely ticking the needle in national polls, and Asa Hutchinson, once Arkansas’ governor, didn’t even make it onto debate stage this Wednesday. Some, like Mike Pence, are teetering on the edge, either for the upcoming third debate or soon-to-be-revealed fundraising figures.

As the Republican field gears up for tonight’s debate, a critical junction approaches for those lagging in the polls. A looming third-quarter fundraising deadline is more than a date; it’s a testament to their campaign’s longevity.

The message is clear: if the third quarter hasn’t seen significant strides, and you lack the finances to run an aggressive campaign, it might be time to reevaluate. Alex Conant, a Republican strategist, recently put it bluntly:

“I think we’ll have to see some candidates make hard choices before the third debate,”

A look at past primaries suggests the autumn before a presidential vote is a time for waving goodbye to falling candidates. For instance, September of 2015 saw Scott Walker and Rick Perry’s exit.

So far, Miami Mayor, Francis Suarez, is the only one to call it quits – a decision that came after he failed to qualify for the first debate.

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