Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) is leading Democratic challenger former Representative Beto O’Rourke by six percentage points according to a new poll. But the real story is his enormous lead with swing voters when the results are broken out by party.

The University of Texas-Texas Politics Project Poll found that 45 percent of Texas voters surveyed would pick Abbott if the election were now compared to 39 percent who would vote for O’Rourke.

Broken down by party, the results are typical. 87% of Democrats would vote for O’Rourke and 84% of Republicans back Abbott.

But independent voters chose Abbott by a full 10 points, with 33% choosing him compared to 22% for O’Rourke.

Cook Political Report rates the race “likely Republican” and Abbott has the advantage as a likeable incumbent in a historically red state.

But O’Rourke is hoping to take advantage of the state’s recent mass shooting and the Supreme Court’s abortion decision in order to gain ground. Thought Abbott has a lead, O’Rourke has slightly improved on polls taken before the Uvalde shooting.

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