Polling in battleground states, and those states not considered battlegrounds, suggests that former President Donald Trump is on the verge of an electoral landslide. In just about every battleground state at the same point in time in 2016 and 2020, Trump is ahead of where he was then.
Take my home state of New York, where Trump is reportedly 13 points behind Harris; Trump lost New York in 2016 and 2020 by 23 points. At this point, Trump is 10 points better now than in his last two elections in New York. That is a huge swing. It is reasonable to suggest that if Trump is at least 10 points better in New York — a state not considered a battleground — he is probably a few points better in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina.
Recent polling shows that, compared to the same time in 2016 and 2020, Trump is polling on average 3 points better in Pennsylvania and 4 points better in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada. The only battleground state where Trump is underperforming is North Carolina due to local issues with the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Mark Robinson.
In Pennsylvania and Georgia, Trump merely needs a one-point swing to win the election. All the data points to Trump being in a better position now than he was at the same time in both 2016 and 2020. In just about every demographic — including Black voters, women, Hispanics and men —Trump is polling better than before.
Pew Research Center analyzed common polling errors and found that most pre-election polls in 2020 “overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump.”
How can polling be so wrong about Trump’s strength and popularity? Two factors are frequently suggested. First, some polling organizations use samples that are skewed toward Democratic candidates. Second, Trump supporters are less likely to be forthcoming about their preference due to shaming by those with “Trump Derangement Syndrome” and by “Never Trumpers.”
An objective analysis of polling data suggests Trump will win in an electoral landslide, flipping Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and potentially Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
Parenthetically, if the Harris campaign is calling for a second debate, then they know they are in trouble. Frontrunners never ask for another debate.
