Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are effectively tied in three pivotal midwestern swing states, according to polling published Saturday by the Trafalgar Group.
The Trafalgar Group’s surveys of likely general election voters show Trump leading within the 2.9% margin of error in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, three of the most important battleground states in the 2024 presidential race. The results indicate that all three states are shaping up to be very competitive on Election Day, which is just 65 days away.
Trafalgar has Trump up by 0.4% in Michigan, leading by 1.1% in Wisconsin and 2.1% in Pennsylvania. Harris narrowly leads in all three states in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with leads of 1.1%, 1.4% and 0.5% in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, respectively.
Trump won all three states in the 2016 election before losing them to President Joe Biden in the 2020 race. The 2024 race may also ultimately go the way of the “blue wall” states, as the Trump campaign is projecting that they will only need to win Pennsylvania to win the election, if they can manage to win North Carolina and Georgia.
Renowned pollster Nate Silver wrote Thursday that Pennsylvania is the “tipping-point” state more than one-third of the time in his election forecasting model. The Trump and Harris campaigns have already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising in the state, according to Axios.
All three polls were conducted between Wednesday and Friday, and all three surveys used the same methodology. The Pennsylvania poll surveyed 1,082 respondents, while the sample size for the Wisconsin poll was 1,083 likely voters and the Michigan poll sampled 1,089 people.
Both candidates have been holding events and rallies in the midwestern swing states. The two candidates are scheduled to face off on the debate stage on Sept. 10.
Harris participated in her first sit-down interview since becoming the de facto Democratic nominee in July following President Joe Biden’s July withdrawal from the race. Meanwhile, Trump has participated in numerous interviews, including discussions with non-traditional interviewers like comedian Theo Von and Tesla CEO Elon Musk.August 31, 2024
