Republican pollster Lee Carter and Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman on Friday said that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of former President Donald Trump could significantly boost his campaign.
Kennedy announced during a Friday speech that he would suspend his campaign and endorse Trump in states where he is not on the ballot, only withdrawing his name from consideration in key battleground states as not to spoil the vote. Carter and Cooperman, on “Your World With Neil Cavuto,” said that in such a close election, the votes that Trump could gain from Kennedy’s decision might boost his chances of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris.
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“When you’re looking at these battleground states, we’re looking at averages where Donald Trump might be ahead by 0.2%, and just getting some of those votes could have a really big impact. And I think RFK Jr. knows this,” Carter said. “He was very, very keen to say, ‘I am withdrawing my name from these 10 states because I know it can have an impact.’ And so I think there is a very, very clear directive here.”
“It’s absolutely the case that the polls in these swing states show that with RFK removed, there is a small advantage that goes to Donald Trump. And in these states, every single vote really does matter. This makes a lot of sense,” Cooperman said. “Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate than they were about Joe Biden. And so you’re seeing much more coalescing among Democrats for Kamala, and therefore the support that RFK was getting in the most recent polls was certainly going to help Trump more so with him removed from it.”
Cooperman also noted “there is uncertainty” about what Kennedy’s supporters will do in November.
“It’s going to really depend, what are these voters going to do? Are they going to stay home or are they going to throw their support behind Donald Trump? I’m very curious now to see how RFK Jr. is integrated into Donald Trump’s campaign and what kind of role they’re going to talk about for him and how they might use this,” Carter added.
“I think Donald Trump’s got to return himself to sort of the underdog status that would help to get those RFK Jr. supporters on his side,” the Republican pollster said.
Kennedy’s support plunged to as low as 2% as of early August, according to an Economist/YouGov poll. Trump is presently beating Harris in the main battleground states by 0.1%, according to the RealClearPoltics average.
A “Morning Joe” panel sounded the alarm on Friday about how difficult it will be for Harris to beat Trump, with the race being so tight and the former president historically outperforming polls on election day.
“You got to look at states like North Carolina and Arizona and, of course, Georgia. Now, you may get a break with minority voting down in Georgia, but you could also come up short in Pennsylvania and not quite win in North Carolina,” former MSNBC host Chris Matthews said. “This could squeak. This could be the toughest election, because if Pennsylvania doesn’t go the Democratic way and North Carolina doesn’t go that way, it’s tough, it’s really tough.”
