CNN chief national correspondent John King pointed out Monday the “easiest” paths to victory for both Vice President Kamala Harris’ and Republican nominee Donald Trump on Election Day.
Public polling data still has not indicated a clear leader one day before the Nov. 5 election, despite former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden holding a lead at this time during their election cycles, King said. Harris and Trump’s easiest paths to victory is to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, one of the Sunbelt states or the second district in Nebraska.
“The vice president, it’s a modest lead, but she’s had a consistent lead [in the Great Lakes states]. Modest lead, but a consistent lead here,” King said. “That would get her there, and this is why Pennsylvania is so important. This is why both candidates are spending so much time and have spent so much time … If she holds [Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania], it doesn’t mean she will, but she’s had a modest consistent lead in both [Michigan and Wisconsin], if she holds these, that’s enough. As long as she picks up Nebraska’s second congressional district where all the polling shows she’s running strong. That’s her easiest path, no path is easy. But that’s the easiest path.”
Harris, who spent more than $294.7 million in Pennsylvania, is crisscrossing across the state where she will campaign in Allentown, Scranton, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia where she plans to hold a concert. Trump is holding rallies in Reading and Pittsburgh.
“If she doesn’t win [Pennsylvania], let’s say Donald Trump wins that, how does Harris get there? Well you have to win at least two more, and even [Arizona and Nevada] wouldn’t be enough. Let’s say she did well out here, those two wouldn’t be enough because they’re not big enough in terms of how many electoral votes they have,” King continued. “That’s why Pennsylvania is so prominent here.”
King said Trump would secure 263 electoral votes if he wins the three Great Lakes states, meaning he would have to win one of the Sunbelt states to reach 270 votes. The vice president would have to win all of the states in the Sunbelt in order to win if Trump were to win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In 2016, Clinton was projected to win the Great Lakes states and North Carolina the day before the election, which she ultimately lost to Trump, King said. Polling data showed Biden being the projected winner the day before the 2020 election, as he was projected to win the Great Lakes and Nevada.
“We had the blue wall leaning blue on that day, right? She lost all three of those to Donald Trump, which is why, everybody at home, be prepared for anything to happen tomorrow, in the sense that you can be leading by a little bit,” King said. “But we knew there was Trump movement at the end, the question was she had led the race for so long , was it enough to overcome? Well it turned out on Election Day, [Trump’s support] was enough to overcome.”
Trump’s support has historically been underestimated in the polls in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Biden led Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan by 8 points and in Pennsylvania by 5 points, all three of which he won by narrow margins on Election Day, according to FiveThirtyEight polls.
Polling indicated a “slight hint of Trump momentum” across the seven battleground states as of Nov, 1, though the polls had a 3.4% margin of error, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Friday. The former president would secure 312 electoral votes in the event that he won Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Harris would receive over 300 electoral votes if she won all of _the battleground states.
Featured Image Credit: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America
